Bank of America just released a shocking 2026 housing market warning that every home seller needs to be paying attention to. Bank of America’s new data is showing that there’s been a massive flip in the cities that people are moving to right now and this could have a huge impact on the housing market next year. Most notably, Bank of America is showing that there’s been a big increase in vacancy rates in the Sun Belt area of America and that some of the cities that were attracting the most people a couple years ago, well now they are losing people. Cities like Miami, Orlando, Tampa, Houston, Atlanta, Charlotte and Dallas are now all in the negatives on population growth which is going to have a big impact on home prices next year. If you’re in a city that people are now leaving, that’s going to mean lower home buyer demand, that’s going to mean lower rental demand, more inventory on the market and lower home prices and what’s interesting about this data everyone and why you need to pay attention to it is it signals a tectonic shift in the housing market in migration cycle. No longer are people moving into the Sun Belt in droves, rather they’re now moving to the Midwest. People are moving to the Midwest. You can see here the number one city for inbound migration in 2025. According to Bank of America’s internal data is Indianapolis. Indianapolis is number one, Columbus is number two, Cleveland is number five, Philadelphia is number eight. We have Rust Belt Northeast in Midwest cities now topping the tables of the areas people are moving to in folks. This is going to have a massive impact on the housing market. Because during the pandemic the prices boomed in the South and the Mountain West on the basis that people would keep moving to those cities while the prices in the Midwest stay cheaper. But now that’s completely flipping on its head and in this video I’m going to break down this data more specifically. I’m also going to take your request. I am live right now everyone. I’m going to take your request in this video. But first let’s look at what’s going on in the overall housing market because while it’s very bifurcated we can see that more broadly home prices are going down across the US. According to CNBC home prices just went negative for the first time in two years across the US more broadly and they may stay that way for a while. Home prices are down 1.4% the last three months. Active listings are 13% higher than last year. So folks you know I’ve been telling you over the last couple years prices are going to drop. People are saying when is it going to happen? Folks it is happening already and it’s likely going to happen more in 2026 in the areas where people are leaving. Because you can see we’re already seeing a big shift in home price growth by market everyone. These areas in blue on Revenge Wrap are the locations where prices are already dropping. Values are already heading into negative territory in these states in blue. We’re talking Florida, Tennessee, North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia, Texas, Arizona, Colorado, Nevada, California, Oregon, Washington. Values are already going down in these states in blue while values are still going up in the states in red. And you can see there’s a big regional bifurcation here. In the Midwest and North these values are going up in 2025. In the South and Mountain West values are going down and that’s a trend that’s likely to perpetuate itself next year with some of these population losses coming through Bank of America’s data. And I want to talk to you for a second about how Bank of America comes up with this data. Because normally we need to wait like a year or a year and a half before we get migration data and we’re getting it live from Bank of America because they actually take a look at the customer accounts where people are spending money. And they’re able to know more or less where people are living based on where they’re spending money. And through that they’re able to come up with these charts in terms of migration and where people are moving. Now what I actually also think is interesting about this everyone is the broader trend here. You could see here Bank of America is talking about how fewer and fewer people are moving out of town. So fewer and fewer people in America are moving which is something you need to know if you’re a home seller or buyer. But in addition fewer people are moving to a different metro or state. So in the third quarter of 2022 that was kind of like the peak of people moving to different states. Since then intrastate movement intrametro movement has dropped by almost 35 percent. Almost 35 percent since then. So way fewer people in general are electing to pick up sticks and move to a different state or city. And you think about well then what cities would that harm. Well obviously harm the big migration boom towns like a city like Miami right benefited a lot during the pandemic. Well now fewer people are moving number one and number two Miami is actually in the last place. Miami lost the most people through the third quarter of 2025. More people moved out than in Miami yet if you go to Miami they tell you in Miami that everyone’s moving in not anymore according to the Bank of America data. You can see some other areas that are losing people include San Jose Los Angeles DC in Boston. Now we often kind of know that those areas are losing people already. LA DC always lose people. That’s not new. That’s not really changing the dynamic of the housing market. But in an area like Orlando it is very much changing the dynamic of the housing market if people are moving out. Because the prices in Orlando went up so much during the pandemic on the basis and idea that people would continue moving there. Well what happens when people stop moving there and start moving out. That’s obviously going to lead to a housing market correction. Baltimore we know people are moving out of Baltimore. Baltimore is an undervalued market. It’s not going to change the market much. New York yeah people have been moving out of New York for a while. Same with San Francisco but then you get a market like Tampa. People are now leaving Tampa. People are now leaving Houston. They’re leaving San Diego. They’re leaving Atlanta. They’re leaving Chicago. But that’s not that surprising. People have left Chicago for a while everyone. I think it’s more surprising is fewer people left Chicago than Atlanta. Unbelievable everyone. I’m going to take your request in a second but let’s just compare Chicago to Atlanta. A lot of people moved here from Chicago to Atlanta during the pandemic. The five-year price growth in Atlanta is 43 percent. The five-year price growth in Chicago is 36 percent. So Chicago is starting to catch up to Atlanta and now the migration is shifting. But the big trend you got to focus on everyone’s inventory. In Atlanta there’s now a record number of homes for sale as of November 2025. We just updated the data on Realtor.com on Reventure App. You guys should check it out. www.reventure.app. Check out this data. Inventory in Atlanta is way up right and I’m going to get to your city here in a second but compare it to Chicago for further proof. In case you’re someone who’s maybe skeptical that people are moving back to the Midwest check about inventory in Chicago. Literally in Chicago inventory is down 65 percent from the pre-pandemic norm. There has been no bounce back in supply. No one’s really selling houses in Chicago and the buyer demand is strong. While in Atlanta or in a market like Dallas inventory is at a record and through the roof. Now if you’ve been a longtime viewer to my channel you’re not going to be surprised that this is coming into reality. I was warning you all a couple years ago well ahead of the curve that we were going to see this inversion and that the Midwest was going to start outperforming the South and the prices in the South would start going down and the Midwest would hold better. But what I think is fascinating is the hard data. Now we have the hard data saying that the South is starting to lose people in some of these cities and the Midwest Indianapolis Columbus and Cleveland is gaining. So what does that mean if you’re a home buyer or seller in these markets? Well it means in Indianapolis Columbus and Cleveland you might see more demand next year or you might see more resilient demand. You won’t see prices drop as much and this data bleeds its way into the Reventure forecast. We have a forecast for every city every state where values are heading over the next year. But let’s take some requests everyone. I see a very active chat section here. What are you guys talking about? What do you want to know? Do you agree with this data? Do you think people are leaving your area? Let’s open up the chat. Are you actually moving? Well we have one person who says, hey Nick, finally caught you live. Yeah, glad to be with you again on the live stream everyone. Reventure user here looking forward to our buying first home in New Year. North Houston area, there’s a ton of excess construction. So that’s the other thing folks. And some of these markets like Houston where people are now leaving, they still have a lot of builder pipeline. There’s still a lot of builder pipeline going on in Houston. So if I go to www.reventure.app and type in Houston and just start looking at what’s going on with prices and inventory. Let’s look at the inventory surplus in Houston everyone. How much excess supply is there? You can see there’s excess supply all over the market. We have some locations here west of downtown Houston that there’s still a shortage. But by and large, huge inventory surplus everywhere. That’s what this red means on the map. The redder the map is for inventory surplus, the bigger the surplus is. And as a result, what are we seeing? Home values now dropping in most areas of Houston. And oh, by the way, if you go to the east side of Houston, you have some markets going down 14, 16%, which is a full scale crash actually. How about Raleigh, North Carolina? They seem to be pretty neutral in Raleigh, North Carolina. Well, it’s a market we could take a look at here in a second. Another person’s from Columbus, Ohio. Another person wants me to chart the biggest percentage increase over the last five years compared to the biggest drop. The higher they rise, the harder they fall. When houses in Phoenix started costing more than Connecticut, that is whack. And that’s a great point, everyone. Why is the Midwest and the Northeast now starting to do better than the Sun Belt in terms of housing, market resiliency, and demand? Well, it all has to do with the mortgage payments, everyone. If you go to a market like Arizona or Nevada or Utah or even Florida, it costs 40% of the local income to be able to afford to buy a house with a mortgage, including taxes and insurance. 40%. So local home buyers in Florida have to pay 40%. In Colorado, they have to pay 44% of their income to afford the mortgage taxes and insurance. In Arizona, they have to pay 41%. In Tennessee, they have to pay 36%. That just got too high. And the point that the person that chat was making is if you go to Connecticut, the mortgage payment to income in Connecticut is 40%, which is also high. Yes, that’s also high. However, there’s no more affordability advantage moving to these Sun Belt states. These Sun Belt states are now just as expensive as many of the Northeast states and the Midwest states you can see are much more affordable. So in Ohio, the mortgage payment to income is 29% of income. 29%. That’s why people are moving to Ohio or moving back to Ohio is because it’s still actually a semi-affordable housing market. Yes, it got more expensive. It’s still semi-affordable. Same in Indiana. Even Illinois is still semi-affordable. Even with those high taxes, local buyers in Illinois can still qualify to buy a home. They can’t anywhere on the West side of the US qualify to buy a home, can’t qualify to buy a home in Florida, struggling to qualify to buy a home in Tennessee and North Carolina. And that’s explaining these regional differences and these regional variations that we’re seeing. Now, I want to talk about another market though that’s sneaky, everyone. We all know prices are dropping in Florida, right? We all know prices are dropping in Texas and they’re going to drop by more in markets like Tennessee and Arizona next year. But what about areas where prices are going to go up? We talked about the Midwest, but there’s another sneaky area which is starting to boom and that’s downtown San Francisco. Downtown San Francisco, San Francisco County was one of the worst housing markets in America during the pandemic. Prices went down like 15%. Now that’s changing. If we look at Bloomberg, Bloomberg is reporting that tech bros are buying multi-million dollar mansions in San Francisco. So the Nvidia money is starting to flow through to the San Francisco housing market. We’re seeing 3 million, we still think it’s going to go up. You got that case-shaped economy. The rich people are still doing well. They got the big stock portfolios, the baby boomer generation. It doesn’t feel like there’s any recession. They’re still buying houses, maybe even in cash in Paradise Valley. However, in Scottsdale, values are starting to drop. We think they’re going to drop 3 to 5% in the next 12 months. They’re already dropping 2 to 5% in the last 12 months. So we think the correction, most of Arizona is going to continue, but oh my gosh, Paradise Valley, up 10% in the last year while the rest of Phoenix is dropping. I mean, that, if you want an example of the economy, Paradise Valley, the Beverly Hills of Arizona going up 10%, while everywhere else in Phoenix is correcting hard, that’s telling you exactly what’s going on in our economy right now. Looking to buy a first home in Northport, Florida, says Robert. Robert Anderson, looking to buy a first home in Northport, Florida. And folks, get your request ready. I probably got another 10 minutes here, so I’m going to be taking your request for the next 10 minutes. Also showing you some new housing market data and forecasts. Now, Northport, Sarasota, Florida, everyone. We’re going to zoom on over here on Reventure App to Florida. Now, here’s what’s interesting, folks. Northport, this includes Manatee County and Sarasota County to the south of Tampa. Values are already down 9.2% in the last 12 months. This is already a heavy stiff correction. Values have gone down three years in a row. They’ve already corrected by about 15%. This is the biggest one-year decline since 2009. So this is a crash that’s already happening in Northport, Sarasota. The question is, when do you buy? How much worse is it going to get? We have a minus 5.4% forecast in the next 12 months. So we still think this market’s going to correct. It’s actually tightened up a little bit. So you can see we bottomed out at a 27 out of 100 price forecast. It’s tightened up to a 33. So the market’s, it’s got, it’s found a little bit of a resilience. It’s still going down. Our forecast is improved from like minus 7, minus 8 to minus 5.5. We still think prices here are going to drop though. There’s still a lot of inventory. There’s still a lot of DOM. You’re going to want to negotiate hard if you’re in a market like this. Maybe even download the Reventure Home Price Forecast Report, send it to the seller, send it to the listing agent, negotiate a discount if you’re in a market that’s correcting hard. How about Huntsville, Alabama, everyone? Huntsville, Alabama. What’s going on in Huntsville? As many of you know, Huntsville is a market that I actually like a lot. Huntsville is located between Birmingham and Nashville. So here we got Huntsville. This is an area that I think is good for the long term. However, price growth here is really flattened out. It’s prices in Huntsville for three years in a row haven’t grown. Three years in a row prices in Huntsville haven’t grown. We could see there’s a lot of inventory on the market. So we go to Market Trends, we open up inventory. Inventory has shot through the roof in Huntsville, highest level of inventory in a decade. That’s telling you downward price pressure. We got that minus 3% forecast for Huntsville. It’s also a pretty overvalued market. Our overvaluation rate, which is a key metric you should check, 25%. Prices in Huntsville are 25% overvalued. So you better be careful buying it. In the long run, I like it. Good population growth, decent affordability. But be careful buying in Huntsville right now. Make sure to negotiate in 2026 if you buy there. How about Austin, Texas for buying in the next year? Folks, Austin, Texas is probably going to be a buy. I’m probably going to issue a buy signal on Austin at some point in the next six months. And let me show you why. We talked about before how Austin has already gone down 24%. Well, Austin is now only 3.7% overvalued. It’s not really that overvalued anymore. It’s improved significantly in terms of its overvaluation. It went from peak overvaluation of 40% now down to 4%. Austin’s actually going to be undervalued soon. I think in the next six months Austin’s going to be undervalued. Maybe even the next three months, I’m going to give a buy signal on Austin probably in the spring to summer based on the current trajectory. What that says, though, if you are negotiating now, get a discount. Anticipate that the prices are going to drop by more but understand that the crash is mostly over in Austin. Boise, Idaho. Oh boy. We’re covering all the big boom towns in this market. If I haven’t gotten to your city yet, stick with me. We’re using data from Reventure app to track whether it’s a good idea to buy. If you’re a seller, are you going to struggle? What’s this Bank of America data mean for you with where people are moving? In Boise, this was a big migration boom town. So if we look at the domestic migration in Boise, the southwestern side of Idaho, we peaked at 26,000 domestic migration in 2021. Now we’re down to 11,000, which is kind of a pretty normal level. It’s now down to a normal level of people moving into Boise. What that has caused is it’s caused the inventory to go up. So inventory is now above the long-term average. However, the days on market isn’t that high right now. The days on market in Boise is around 56 days. Average is 52. And the price cut rate is actually also somewhat around the average level. So our forecast for Boise the next 12 months is flat. This is a market that did correct. This market did correct over the last three years. It’s down already by 9% from peak. So values have gone down in Boise, but it’s kind of found some resilience level. So we anticipate Boise the trade sideways in the next year unless there’s another leg of inventory up in this market. What else we got everyone? How about Las Vegas? Las Vegas, everyone. This is a really interesting housing market. Las Vegas, interestingly, according to the Bank of America data, people are still moving to Vegas. Vegas came in number seven after San Antonio in Cleveland and before Philadelphia in terms of move-ins. However, it was a much better move-in rate a couple years ago. And Vegas has now seen a lot of local issues, everyone. Tourism is down in Vegas, gaming revenue is flat to down, and that’s actually starting to show up in the local housing market here. So in Vegas, folks, prices are now down 1% in the last year. And since the 2022 peak, they’re down 2%. So prices starting to correct a little bit in Vegas, but we think they’re going to correct by more. And why is that? Let’s look at the home sales. Let’s look at the home sale activity in Vegas, the buyer demand. How many people are buying homes in Sin City? That has dropped from 4,000 in October 2021 to 2200 in October 2025. Buyer demand in Vegas is down almost 50% from peak and it’s down about 30% from the long run average. So the demand has been wiped out in Vegas. Now, the reason prices haven’t dropped by more is because we didn’t have enough inventory there for a while. Inventory was still low. Now inventory is rising. So we have a minus 2.1% forecast in Vegas. That forecast is going to be heavily dependent on the city and zip code you guys are in. Make sure to pay attention to those zip code level forecasts if you’re a buyer or seller. Some areas we think are going to drop 7% in Vegas. Other areas we think are going to be flat. You’re going to want to know what the data looks like for your market. However, I want to touch upon rents for a second, everyone, the rental market across America. We’re starting to see this rental market start to turn over. Rents are starting to deflate and this is something that could have a massive impact on the housing market. Rents going down. When rents go down, that causes buyer demand to drop and increases pressure on investors to sell. And we just got a new report from RealPage, which is the apartment data aggregator and management software system. They just reported that rent cuts continue in the U.S. apartment market as occupancy falls below 95%. Now they’re showing here that rents are down 0.7% in the last year, 0.4% last month. The demand is starting to slip as well. The supply is up. The markets with the biggest rent cuts, everyone. These are markets that could also see big home price declines. Austin, Denver, Phoenix, San Antonio, Tampa, Raleigh, Charlotte, Dallas, Nashville, Vegas. Pretty much a lot of those markets that saw the migration drop, they’re starting to see the rents go down year over year as well. So when you see rents dropping, that’s a positive sign for you as a home buyer. It’s another indicator that we’re seeing some deflationary activity. There’ll be more affordability. Now, what about markets where rents are going up? Where are markets where rents are going up? These could be more resilient. San Francisco, just talked to you guys about how the AI boom is starting to lead to some demand in San Francisco County and San Jose. Rents are also going up New York, Chicago, Virginia Beach, Cincinnati, Minneapolis, Pittsburgh, St. Louis, Milwaukee. So it’s telling the same story, everyone. Midwest resilience. Midwest northeast resilience with the Bay Area also being resilient right now, according to the data. And we could actually see, according to Rent Cafe, everyone, renter engagement tracker, Cincinnati, number one city in America for renter interest. Midwest is the most in demand region. So if you’re an investor, right, wondering where is the market going? Where are people going? Where are jobs going? Where are people moving? The Midwest is it right now. And I know that’s kind of hard to imagine for a lot of people, because we’ve just been told for so long that the South is just where everyone’s going, but the data is stacking up. The Midwest is starting to turn into a market where maybe that’s just where Americans are going to move the next couple of years. Someone says they appreciate the aggregated information. Of course, happy to share it with you. We got a request for Lakewood, Ranch, Florida, Flathead County, Montana, Dayton, Ohio. Another person says they heard Vegas is in bad shape. Yeah, folks, Vegas is rough right now. When the economy in Vegas goes down, means the housing market goes down, tends to spread to the rest of the US. One person’s moving from New York City to North Carolina. They say New York City is no doubt going to continue to rise in price and tax, with the new mayor is going to get worse on everything. Three casinos coming into the city, families with children flee. Is that true? Are they actually opening casinos in New York City? That would be unfortunate, in my opinion, if they did that. Seattle. We have someone in Seattle saying, seems like two markets. High price seem to be moving, normal prices seem slow. AI wealth effect. Well, that’s what’s happening in the Bay Area. Let’s go back to Reventure App here and take some requests. So, folks, we’re gearing up for our 2026 price forecast here on Reventure App. I’m going to write a blog post, going to do a video on it, but I’m going to give you a little preview right now. What’s our price forecast looking at right now? November, roughly November 2025 to 2026. This is what our price forecast is looking like in different states. You can see Illinois is one of our top states. We think prices in Illinois are going to go up 6% next year. Connecticut’s going to go up 8%. So, we think continued appreciation in these Midwest towns. But, folks, Florida, Colorado, Texas, Arizona, Utah, Tennessee, North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia all have negative forecasts ranging from minus 2 to minus 5%. Now, these are baseline forecasts, everyone, and these forecasts tend to vary a lot by city and zip code. So, if you’re an interested home buyer and investor, it’s really important for you guys when you go on Reventure App to look at your specific area and see what the forecasts are under a premium plan. Atlanta is a great example. So, if you go to Atlanta, you look to the north and the suburbs, we think prices are going to go up 3% to 6% due to resilient buyer demand, due to the fact that inventory is still low, days on market is still low. So, there’s still tightness here in these northern Atlanta suburbs. Prices are going to be flat to up in the next 10 years, in the next one year. You should know that if you’re a buyer or a seller. Before you price your house, if you sell it, before you submit an offer, if you buy it, you’re going to want to know the future direction of prices so that you don’t lose money, you don’t lose money on the table, you don’t leave money on the table. Now, if you go to South Atlanta, Southeast Atlanta, West Atlanta, values are forecast to drop. So, ultimately, your strategy as a buyer and investor is going to be much different in a market where prices are forecast to go down by 9% or 10% than where prices are forecast to go up by 6%. And so, that’s why doing this due diligence at the city and zip code level is so important. It’s so important, everyone. I actually want to announce an exciting thing for you guys right now. If you’re someone who’s been interested in the housing market data for a while and maybe you want to share that data with more people, we actually just launched a gift, a subscription. If you go to Reventure.app slash gift, you can gift the Reventure app subscription this holiday season at a 40 to 60% discount from the monthly rate. You can see the prices right here. A one-month gift would be 89, 12-month gift would be $239. These are 40 to 60% discounts off the normal monthly rate. These are non-renewing. So, these are one-time-only gifts you could buy or Reventure.app subscription for a loved one. Help them out. You could also buy one for yourself as well. Just wanted to put that out there for you guys. But let’s get into some more requests here. Some more requests. Someone says, waiting 20 more years to buy a house then, according to Michael. Well, it totally depends on the market you’re in. I’m going to say 20 years is, you’re not going to probably wait 20 years, but some markets still don’t have enough inventory for prices to drop. One person wants to know, will we have a crash in Metro Atlanta? I just explained that to you, Jane. There already is a crash playing out in half of Atlanta. The other half of Atlanta prices are flat. You got to understand your market. It totally depends on inventory and home sales. Spokane, Washington. Buford, South Carolina. 84043. Another person says, real page cannot be correct. In Boston area, landlords are complaining about no renters due to lack of college students, a new building apartment coming online. We have seen rents coming down. Folks, real page’s data is in like over half of the apartment units. So I would probably imagine it’s correct. All right. Let’s do a couple more requests. What about a crash in San Diego? Are we going to see a crash in San Diego? Are we going to see a crash in California? Let’s take a look, everyone. Let’s take a look. I’ve got a couple more minutes before I got to sign off. San Diego, minus 2.6% in the last year. So we’re already seeing prices go down in San Diego. We’re already seeing prices go down in Riverside. That’s the good news. How about maybe the bad news? Prices are forecast to only go down 0.6% in the next year in San Diego. So inventory is tightened up a little bit. Days on markets tightened up a little bit. Demand is still low. But again, it really depends on where. I cannot stress this enough, everyone. When we look at San Diego, we are seeing a real correction play out in and around the downtown area, the suburban areas, 5, 10 miles out. Correction is already playing out. If you go to some of these suburbs on your Encinitas and Carlsbad, it’s more resilient. So ultimately, folks, go to www.reventure.app and access this data for yourself under a premium plan. If you’re a buyer and investor, you’re not going to want to purchase in 2026 without this data, type in your zip code or your city and you can get taken to the data right away in your zip code in your city. And if you’re looking for the right gift for someone in the holiday season, go to www.reventure.app slash gift and you can gift a subscription, either a one month subscription, three months or 12 months, makes a perfect gift for someone in your family or friends who’s going to buy a house. You can also get one for yourself as well. Until next time, everyone, this is Nick from Reventure Consulting.